CITI's CALIFORNIA PULSE, 1st Qtr. Survey 2010
Nearly seven in 10 Californians (69 percent) say they see few signs of the
economy improving in California, according to the latest Citi California
Pulse(TM). Nonetheless, residents of the state remain optimistic about the
economy as well as their personal finances, particularly in the next 12 months,
the quarterly survey found.
From jobs to real estate to the environment for small businesses, Californians
see little evidence that the economy has turned the corner. Yet at the same
time, many Californians remain optimistic, believing their personal financial
situation (67 percent), job opportunities (54 percent), and debt level (61
percent) will improve in the next 12 months. Moreover, when compared to last
year, more respondents believe the state is headed in right direction, that
California is a great place to live, and that their personal financial situation,
including savings, has improved.
Overall, the Citi California Pulse index of optimism rose slightly in the first
quarter of 2010 (-3) when compared to the fourth quarter of 2009 (-4), but
remained below the third quarter results (-1).
"Despite the challenging conditions in our state, many Californians are optimistic
about the future and about California's resiliency," said Rebecca Macieira-Kaufmann,
President of Citibank California. "Yet until factors such as job creation and home
prices clearly improve, many residents will continue to view the current environment
as difficult and a full economic recovery as further out in the future."
Among the survey's key findings:
-- 91 percent say the condition of California economy is only fair or poor
-- 91 percent say job opportunities in California are only fair or poor
-- 76 percent say they see no signs of the job market improving in California
-- 65 percent say they see no signs the real estate market in California is
improving
-- 64 percent said California is a good or great place to live
-- 62 percent of respondents are comfortable with their level of debt
Signs of Recovery
Overall, Californians identified few signs of a recovery. In addition to the state
economy, jobs and the real estate market, respondents see no signs of improvement
in the state's small business environment (67 percent), the quality of schools and
education (75 percent), an increase in tourism (62 percent), and increased occupancy
of commercial real estate (72 percent), according to the survey.
Regional Results: Northern Californians More Optimistic
The survey found continuing differences between residents of Southern California and
Northern California. Los Angeles-area residents (52 percent) are less likely to see
a better economy in 12 months than San Francisco residents (64 percent). And while
14 percent of Bay Area residents believe job opportunities are currently excellent/good,
only 5 percent in Los Angeles agree.
Similarly:
-- 62 percent of Bay Area residents believe job opportunities will be better in the
next 12 months compared to 56 percent of Los Angeles-area residents
-- 35 percent in San Francisco see signs that the real estate market has improved,
compared to 26 percent in Los Angeles
-- 48 percent in the Los Angeles area believe the country is on the "wrong track,"
compared to 38 percent in San Francisco
-- 41 percent of Bay Area residents believe it is currently a good time to purchase
big-ticket items, compared to 32 percent of Los Angeles-area residents
About the Survey
The Citi California Pulse(TM) is a quarterly survey focused on California consumer
and small business sentiment regarding the current and future economic environment.
This poll was conducted by telephone March 23 - 31, 2010, among a random sample of
1,201 California residents, age 18 and older throughout the state. Interviews were
conducted in both English and Spanish. The design includes interviews with cell
phone respondents, 335 interviews in the San Francisco MSA and 323 interviews in
the Los Angeles MSA. The cell phone and MSA samples are weighted to the correct
proportions. The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3
percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Abt SRBI Public
Affairs, a major national polling firm conducted all interviewing. For additional
information, visit: www.srbi.com.
Index Methodology
The Citi California Pulse(TM) Index is calculated by subtracting negative responses
to each item from the positive responses for all 12 index items. The Index scale can
range from +100 (if every respondent gave positive response to each of the 12 questions)
to -100 (if all respondents expressed consistently negative views).



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